By Professor Bob Miles, Director of the Institute for Sustainable Regional Development, Central Queensland University.

Records have shown that the 20th Century was the warmest in over 1,800 years. The debate as to whether climate change is real or not is over and the world is now acknowledging that climate change is a reality. Rises in global temperatures, higher storm intensity and change in rainfall variability and distribution are already being recorded.

In Australia, the impacts of climate change are reflected in an increase in average temperate of 0.8 degrees C and changed rainfall patterns, in particular along the east coast of Australia where rainfall has reduced by as much as 25% since the 1970s.

Sea level rise and temperature increases are expected to continue over the next 70 years, and the affects that these changes will have on Australia’s climate means that changes to current practices in the beef Industry will be necessary – adaptation to the changing and changed climate is vital.

In particular, Queensland is expected to be impacted on by reduced rainfall; increased frequency of hot days (temperature above 35 degrees C); increased rates of evaporation leading to decreased soil moisture and compromised soil condition; and increased intensity of rainfall events.

While changes to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicate a mean El Nino climate will prevail, there are also projections that indicate that while cyclone frequency may decrease, intensity of cyclones may increase.

The combination of higher temperatures, fewer rainfall events and increased intensity of rainfall events will have a great impact on available water resources.

Groundwater and run-off will be a less reliable resource than in previous decades. Increased evaporation due to the increased temperature conditions will also have an impact on available water.

Impacts of climate change on land use are complex, as they are influenced by many factors. Limited rainfall, increased irrigation, changed fire risk, changing ecosystems and biodiversity will all impact on current and future land use.

The most obvious changes for the industry will be in impact on plant available moisture and pasture production, stocking rates etc. The reduced rainfall could also see a decrease in dryland cropping and an increase in water requirements for irrigated cropping. Practices that are currently sustainable may not be so in the changed climate conditions.

However, not all the changes will be negative – the reduced number of frosts during winter may increase some grain crop yields. The increased carbon dioxide available to plant growth may also have a positive impact.

The grazing and agricultural sector will be particularly vulnerable to changes in climate. The expected changes will require significant changes in land use and management.

Some research, offered by the climate change scientists, indicates that the cropping sector in Queensland can anticipate a 15% reduction in output.

One of the single biggest needs in ameliorating the impacts of the extremes of climate will be the maintenance of ground cover and riparian buffers.

Land with low levels of ground cover is at risk of soil loss due to erosion, while good levels of ground cover helps reduce erosion and enhances soil condition.

The grazing and agricultural sectors are highly experienced at managing change and risk and are familiar with changing practices.

What is now needed to assist the industry to make these changes and adjust successfully, is research into the identification of risk factors for given climate event/scenarios. This research will assist producers to make viable business decisions based on risk and probability.

The Institute for Sustainable Regional Development (ISRD) at Central Queensland University is leading this research nationally and has formed a partnership with the University of Sydney and University of South Australia. This research will need to be done in close partnership with Industry.

For more information contact the ISRD on 4930 9053.