The Queensland town of Emerald could grow its population by up to 50% over the next six years if it can find skilled workers and houses to put them in.

That is according to research carried out by Central Queensland University on behalf of the Central Highlands Development Corporation.

Lead researcher, Associate Professor John Rolfe, said that while Emerald had a strong reliance on agriculture (and this would continue to be important), there were about 45 new coal mines in the Bowen Basin under development or being investigated.

While not all of these mines would proceed, coal mining and related service provision had the greatest potential to drive future development in Emerald.

The main clouds on the economic horizon were difficulties in attracting, retaining and housing skilled workers, especially tradespeople. Due to the competition between regions and the growth occurring in the south-east corner of Queensland, this shortage could be felt for the next five to 10 years.

The high wages paid by coal mines may be a factor in reducing the levels of skilled workers available to other local labour markets. In addition, the ready availability of unskilled and semi-skilled jobs could be a disincentive for locals to pursue further education and training to upgrade their skills.

“Key issues for further development of Emerald include provision of health, education and other social services; the ability to develop upstream and downstream business services; the attractiveness of the town for new residents; and the continued development of infrastructure including industrial land and specialised services,” Dr Rolfe said.

“Despite these current constraints, businesses in Emerald expressed a conservative but optimistic outlook in activities and sales for the next 12 months ... the optimistic outlook was also expressed in employment figures,” he said.